Lower borrowing rates, lower prices, households gain in solvency.
771,000 sales by the end of 2024
According to their forecasts, made official on Tuesday at a press conference, and those of the real estate appraisal specialist Meilleursagents, the market, which has been in decline for several months, should pick up again in France and reach 771,000 sales by the end of the year, then 900,000 in 2025, after three years of decline which caused it to plummet to its lowest level in August (756,000 transactions).
The threshold of one million purchases, which generally shows a good rotation of real estate, is still out of reach, but the trend is starting to rise again, driven by green signals.
A tipping point
First, the cost of borrowing is still falling in September, which mechanically increases households’ purchasing power. The new rate scales unveiled by the banks on Monday reflect a drop in rates of 0.10 to 0.30 points.
This is a loan offered at 3.6% over twenty years, on average. A figure that varies from one bank to another and obviously remains closely linked to the borrower’s situation. “A very good file can now hope for 3.20% over this period”, underlines Sandrine Allonier, spokesperson for the broker Vous Financer, in the columns of Le Figaro. Another encouraging development for real estate professionals is that sellers are generally more flexible.
Despite increases in some cities, prices are falling
“Today, owners are accepting price reductions, which helps unlock sales,” observes Thomas Lefebvre, in charge of the Data & Science sector at Seloger.com, quoted by BFMTV. Prices have thus fallen by 1.3% over the past year, even if increases are emerging in certain cities. Since the beginning of 2024, the selling price per square meter has increased by 1.9% in Paris and 2.3% in Nice, but fallen by 2% in Marseille, 3% in Lyon and Montpellier and even 4.3% in Rennes.
However, at the same time, some French people are regaining purchasing power. Households’ purchasing power is on the rise again (+4 m2) in 2024, whereas they were forced to buy smaller for two years (-11 m2, i.e. the loss of one room). According to the calculations of the classifieds site, the drop in rates, the increase in income and negotiated prices could allow buyers to gain around 7 m2 of living space.
“The increase in purchasing power will mechanically have an effect on demand, helped by the seasonal rebound in spring. This suggests a tipping point,” analyses Thomas Lefebvre, interviewed by BFMTV. “It’s an interesting market moment to get started, we’re at a price low. Buying, even if it means renegotiating your credit, can be worth it,” he advises.